Kalshi · BTC 15-minute markets

A trading bot that mostly
stands down.

Satoshi Scalp trades Bitcoin's 15-minute up/down markets on Kalshi — but only when its model beats the market price by a real, fee-adjusted edge. No edge, no trade. Most ticks, it does nothing on purpose.

Run your own copySee the dashboard
15 minmarket windows, around the clock
4 gatesevery entry must pass all four
$100daily loss limit, hard-coded stop
Paper firstships in shadow mode by default

How it trades

Every 15 minutes, Kalshi opens a market: will Bitcoin close this window up or down? Satoshi Scalp prices that question itself — spot momentum, volatility, and a sentiment read — and compares its price to the market's. It trades the difference, and only the difference.

01

Price it yourself

A probability model estimates the true chance of an up close from live price action — never trusting the market's price as the answer.

02

Demand an edge

If the model's price doesn't beat the ask by at least 10¢ after fees, the tick ends. Standing down is the default state, not a failure.

03

Exit on rules

Take-profit at +25%, a 50% stop-loss, a model-collapse exit if the read flips, and an EV exit whenever selling beats holding. No discretion, no hope.

The four gates

Every live entry — the bot's own and any manual pick from the dashboard — must pass all four gates at the moment of placement. Fail one, and the trade doesn't happen.

Price band

Ask must sit between 35¢ and 65¢. No lottery tickets at 8¢, no paying 90¢ for "certainty" the model can't verify.

Model confidence

The held side's model probability must be at least 60% — setups priced like the model actually believes them.

Net edge

Model minus ask, minus both sides' fees, must clear 10¢. Fees eat thin edges alive; this gate refuses to feed them.

Overconfidence block

Model at 95%+? Blocked. Live data showed the model is least calibrated exactly where it sounds most sure.

The dashboard

A live control room: open position, model vs. market, balance over time, calibration, and a full audit log of every decision — including the trades it refused.

Satoshi Scalp dashboard - Overview tab
Overview. The live state at a glance: the current market with model vs. market, the signal read, and the open position. Captured from the demo instance in shadow/paper mode - the real interface, none of the author's live account data.
Satoshi Scalp dashboard - Performance tab
Performance. Paper results kept separate from the real book, sentiment accuracy, and the scalp lane's numbers.
Satoshi Scalp dashboard - Setup tab
Setup. Your Kalshi keys go into the dashboard's own vault - never a chat message or a file - and manual picks run through the same four gates as the bot's own trades.

Deep risk controls

Nothing about risk is buried in a config file. Every control is a visible switch or a number on the Settings tab - set it, save it, and the engine, the exit watcher, and the scalp lane all read the same values.

Satoshi Scalp dashboard - Settings tab with all risk controls
Settings. The actual controls, exactly as they ship - gates, stops, caps, and the kill switch on one screen.
Kill switchOne toggle halts all trading activity until you turn it back on.
$100 daily loss limitHit -$100 on the day and new entries stop. Exits are never blocked; the counter resets at midnight UTC.
50% stop-lossA position that falls to half its entry value gets exited - checked continuously by a dedicated exit watcher, not just on the engine's two-minute cycle.
+25% take-profitThe scalp lane banks a win at +25% instead of holding out for more and giving it back.
$50 max per entry - 40 contractsHard size caps that hold no matter how confident the model prints.
3.5% risk per tradePositions are sized on worst-case loss - a fixed slice of the balance, never a hunch.
Fill verificationEvery fill is reconciled against the venue before it is booked, so the ledger you read is the account you actually have.

What's in the package

Satoshi Scalp is a copy you run yourself — your device, your Kalshi account, your API keys, your settings. Not a subscription, not a hosted service, nobody else's hands on your money.

The engine

The full trading engine: model, gates, exits, risk controls, and the 60-second exit watcher.

The dashboard

The same control room the author runs — live state, performance, calibration, audit log, manual picks with the same gates applied.

Setup + guide

An installer that wires up the schedules, and a plain-English guide: keys in, paper mode first, go live only when you say so.

$100default daily loss limit
$50default max per entry
50%default stop-loss
+25%default take-profit
Download Satoshi Scalp v1 - free

A .zip of the full package - engine, dashboard, installer, and the plain-English guide. Free for personal use; see the license inside. Runs on your own device, your own Kalshi account, your own keys.

Honest questions

Does it win?

Sometimes. It is a rules-gated scalper with a real, measured track record — including losing days, a payoff profile where losses run bigger than wins, and a standing program to improve exactly that. Anyone promising you a bot that always wins is selling you something.

Why does it stand down so much?

Because most 15-minute windows offer no edge after fees. The bot's job is not to trade; it's to refuse bad trades quickly and take good ones without hesitation.

Do I need to know how to code?

No. You need a Kalshi account, your own API keys, and a machine (or assistant) to run it on. The guide is written in plain English.

What does it cost?

Version 1 is free. Download it, run it on your own account, keep it — the copy you get stays yours to use. Future versions may be offered on paid terms, and early users will hear about that first; nothing you already have gets switched off or retro-charged.

Risk, plainly: trading event contracts can lose money, including everything you stake. Satoshi Scalp is software, not financial advice. It ships in paper mode; if you ever switch it live, you are the one trading. Past performance of any configuration does not predict future results.